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Originally Posted by jimjamuser
The whole herd idea is wrong and bizarro! It takes 60% positive cases to achieve "herd immunity". Florida has 14% today positive cases today. (St Pete has 9% because they went to masks). Sweden's overall deaths are 11 times neighboring Norway. Only 25% of Swedes in Stockholm have been exposed. They ADMIT that their "herd immunity" attempt did not work. Just Google that! But, all the charts in the world are not as significant as the fact that the US is #1 in the world for mishandling the CV Plague. We should only have about 60,000 deaths today. The US is currently # 5 in world ranking for deaths (and rising due to rising case). I don't understand the effort to misinform the Villiage people by poo - pooing the problem - what is the motivation for that? To kill as many Village people as possible?
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I am not sure if it's worth the bother to reply to people who don't read links but I'll try to be nice.
First, the number of confirmed positive tests in Florida is only the tip of the iceberg. There have been 100s of scientific studies by DOCTORS that show that the number of asymptomatic cases that are out there dwarfs the number of confirmed positive tests.
CDC Director Redfield recently stated that it is probably 10 times as many asymptomatics as confirmed cases. That means if we currently have 360,000 cases confirmed by testing, there are actually 3,600,000 cases out there if you add untested asymptomatics. Asymptomatics don't die but they can and do spread the virus.
Second, new scientific studies by DOCTORS and EPIDEMIOLOGISTS (like the Oxford study I linked) are now proposing that there are huge numbers of people who have T cell immunity from previous exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold. These people, when exposed to the virus, do not get sick because their T cells fight it off. They also do not show up in antibody tests.
Coronavirus: Levels of herd immunity in UK may already be high enough to prevent second wave, study suggests | The Independent
I didn't come up with the idea that the herd immunity threshold is 30% or less, a Nobel Prize winner from Stanford named Michael Levitt did. He did this after analyzing data from countries all over the world. The epidemiologists at Oxford in their study I previously linked, confirm this theory.
You can see that in reality, places like New York and Sweden have reached the herd immunity threshold already. Even though New York used lockdowns and masks, while Sweden did not, their graphs for daily deaths go up to a peak and then down in a very similar way. Both places now are approaching zero in new deaths and cases with no surge like we have in Florida.
Florida has not reached the threshold yet, but will very soon (by end of July) and then new cases will start going down. We will have an uptick in new deaths for a few more weeks (deaths lag)and then those will start going down too. My prediction is based on known number of confirmed positives, and estimated asymptomatics and T cell immunes. When these reach a certain percentage of population, the virus runs out of targets.
As always, I advise my fellow elderly and at risk neighbors to stay out of buildings except home and take no risks until new cases start approaching zero.
