Quote:
Originally Posted by GoodLife
I am not sure if it's worth the bother to reply to people who don't read links but I'll try to be nice.
First, the number of confirmed positive tests in Florida is only the tip of the iceberg. There have been 100s of scientific studies by DOCTORS that show that the number of asymptomatic cases that are out there dwarfs the number of confirmed positive tests.
CDC Director Redfield recently stated that it is probably 10 times as many asymptomatics as confirmed cases. That means if we currently have 360,000 cases confirmed by testing, there are actually 3,600,000 cases out there if you add untested asymptomatics. Asymptomatics don't die but they can and do spread the virus.
Second, new scientific studies by DOCTORS and EPIDEMIOLOGISTS (like the Oxford study I linked) are now proposing that there are huge numbers of people who have T cell immunity from previous exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold. These people, when exposed to the virus, do not get infected because their T cells fight it off. They also do not show up in antibody tests. They have natural immunity and do not spread the virus.
Coronavirus: Levels of herd immunity in UK may already be high enough to prevent second wave, study suggests | The Independent
I didn't come up with the idea that the herd immunity threshold is 30% or less, a Nobel Prize winner from Stanford named Michael Levitt did. He did this after analyzing data from countries all over the world. The epidemiologists at Oxford in their study I previously linked, confirm this theory.
You can see that in reality, places like New York and Sweden have reached the herd immunity threshold already. Even though New York used lockdowns and masks, while Sweden did not, their graphs for daily deaths go up to a peak and then down in a very similar way. Both places now are approaching zero in new deaths and cases with no surge like we have in Florida.
Attachment 85351
Florida has not reached the threshold yet, but will very soon (by end of July) and then new cases will start going down. We will have an uptick in new deaths for a few more weeks (deaths lag)and then those will start going down too. My prediction is based on known number of confirmed positives, and estimated asymptomatics and T cell immunes. When these reach a certain percentage of population, the virus runs out of targets.
As always, I advise my fellow elderly and at risk neighbors to stay out of buildings except home and take no risks until new cases start approaching zero.  |
Everyone in the Villages is elderly. When you downplay the CV facts ( so cleverly ), I know that it's end result will be more DEAD Villagers. Jesus will NOT be mad at me. And I feel so proud that you lower yourself to help me understand the multitude of graphs and words intended to dismiss the severity of this PLAGUE. A very expert doctor predicts that when CV runs its course that 800,000 US citizens will be DEAD! Many will DIE of CV in TV. I won't be to blame. I will promise to read your links when you promise to Google -- "Sweden admits to being wrong ABOUT "HERD IMMUNITY"!
There are Doctors and nurses rushing to Miami. I believe that freezer trucks are ordered. Perhaps THEY forgot to read your pretty graphs? I hope it is not too LATE to call them back. People that downplay, should ask, "What if I am wrong". The wrong answer is DEATH TO FRIENDS. The other answer is only inconvenience. What choice would a good gambler make? And then there is my question about motivation? I KNOW why I am saying my ideas.