Quote:
Originally Posted by roscoguy
Ooops, if I’ve violated the rules of ToTV, I apologize. I will be on the lookout, as usual, for those weak arguments, however. Thanks for the warning! 
Not trying that hard at all. Some of the links may not be quite as up to date as the latest ‘opinion’ you’ve found, but then again, they didn’t necessarily need to update an article without a compelling reason. The mistakes & agendas you allude to are, again, no more than opinion and not the end of this particular story. (You chose not to mention, but may have noticed, the WebMD article was reviewed on 7/15/20.) And, suggestion of latest research aside, none have been proven to be "completely wrong" as yet. Your optimism regarding the USA Today article is unfortunately only that; hopefully T-cells will prevent reinfection, but the science is not exactly definitive. T-cells do not equate immunity to influenza or the common cold, for example. Valid questions remain. There is even some dissension among experts, as is evident in the link you provide above. Did you misunderstand/discount the importance of those?
OK, there may well be differences between Sweden & it’s neighboring Scandinavian countries. But not between Sweden & New Jersey or New York? Come on, let’s get back to apples and apples here. Like I’ve already pointed out, there are many reasons to discount these comparisons, including population density of the major cities as well as ALL the reasons you’ve included above to berate equating Sweden to their nearest neighbors, among others. The Swedes in general are healthier AND happier than Americans (yeah, I went there again), which we all know those affect the severity of the individual’s reaction to Covid-19. Plus the Swedish government did recommend mitigation efforts, some of which are included in your own chart: banning large meetings; working from home; limiting contact and avoiding crowded areas for those over 70 & closing secondary schools and universities. How many Swedes voluntarily complied with these recommendations? It certainly was spotty in the US, for many different reasons.
And really, what exactly IS your answer to my question: SO WHAT? Hammering in the opinion that the measures supported by much of the scientific community at the time of initial spread of Covid-19 in the US was somehow overreach by the government is confusing, given the poor showing we’ve had as a whole. Are you really suggesting a “let the chips fall where they may” (aka: herd immunity) philosophy would have somehow been better for the US, given the severity & high death rates in many areas? In the end, it seems to me that comparing the death rates of Covid-19 to anything else, including the 1957 H2N2 outbreak, without the myriad differences pointed out, is little more than flashy charts, graphs and potentially misleading numbers.
Finally, where exactly was all this latest research at the time that Covid-19 first entered the US? Well, it didn’t exist, did it? If it proves out, it could provide a very interesting hindsight perspective to the wisdom of the measures taken in this country. Some may claim to have foreseen the damage to come, but there is no shartage of self-proclaimed prophets these days... |
The T cell immunity in large percentages of the population has been confirmed by 3-4 studies done in different parts of the world. You don't have to believe or even understand this science, you can see it in data charts of cases and deaths per day in countries all over the world. I use the chart comparing New York and Sweden because it shows the same rise and fall of deaths even though the two places used completely different strategies. Both were hit hard by the virus, and in both places after less than 10% of residents were confirmed positive, the cases and deaths peaked and then started falling. Neither place has seen a surge in new cases or deaths like Florida and many other places. The only conclusion I and many scientists can see is that the virus hit a wall and ran out of targets that it could infect.
The wall is composed of aysmptomatics (CDC estimates 10 times confirmed tests) plus T cell immunes which the studies have estimated at anywhere from 50% to 80% of populations. It appears that Florida has now hit that wall as the new cases appear to have peaked and are going down. I predicted this would happen in another thread at the beginning of July by using a simple formula. I'm waiting a bit more to make sure this is not a false peak but it looks like we have hit "the wall" which is good news. Higher deaths will continue for a few more weeks as they lag new cases.
As far as hindsight goes, there are many scientists I read who raised alarms about the Imperial College models that were believed and promoted by Fauci and panicked most of the world into extreme lockdowns and economic chaos. Those models turned out to be catastrophically wrong. One epidemiologist named Knut Wittkowski at Rockefeller University was saying way back in March that the lockdowns were not necessary and stupid. He proposed that only the elderly and others with pre existing health problems should stay at home, let younger people continue working, let schools stay open. He was also very prescient about nursing homes and said that they should lock down completely and require all staff to stay at the nursing homes 24/7 so that they could not bring the virus into that vulnerable population. YouTube censored his video because it went against WHO ideas and was considered misinformation.
I think Witkowski's plan would have resulted in fewer deaths overall and a LOT LESS economic chaos. He is not some lone whacko either, some of the most highly cited epidemiologists in the world like John Ioaniddis of Stanford agree with him and were warning against drastic lockdowns in March. Nobel Prize winner Michael Levitt also at Stanford is where I first got the idea that herd immunity threshold could be as low as 20-30%. These are not "internet prophets" and are some of the most eminent and cited scientists in the world.
In the coronavirus pandemic, we're making decisions without reliable data