Quote:
Originally Posted by coffeebean
Just had a thought.......Since this pandemic has gripped this nation.......Have the deaths from all other causes been tracked? Are there zero deaths from auto accidents, zero deaths from heart attacks, zero deaths from renal failure, zero deaths from strokes, etc, etc, etc. You get the idea.
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Excess deaths are tracked.
Here is wwwDOTcdcDOTgov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths
There was quite a hump in the spring, a bit of a hump in July and now it's dropping down to nothing.
Every area has to go through their initial phase and then it's done in that area. It gets all the weak hosts and then it's done. This is not to say there aren't people it missed, but it seems to weed out the weakest and run out of hosts.
People talking about a spiking in cases but there are hundreds of thousands of tests taking place each day and the specificity and sensitivity of the PCR test is not that great.
Even with 1% false positive, that's 2000 false positives per day. If there are 2000 actual positives, that means that 50% of the "cases" aren't real.
Before you attack the number, you need to go look at the specificity and sensitivity of the PCR test yourself. Understand what it means. This is not to say the disease isn't real or that it's not bad. I know two folks who died due to catching it. It's just that if we had the same kind of testing in April as we have today, this recent increase in cases would be bouncing along the baseline rather than a spike.