Quote:
Originally Posted by Malsua
The media has pushed this idea.
Anyone that has paid any attention to this you learn a couple things.
1. You can't hide from it.
2. You can reduce your inoculum. How much? Any helps. You can go from an LD50 dose of virus to a toxic or "therapeutic" dose which might mean you have an asymptomatic case or just some sniffles.
3. Mask wearing seems to be associated with increasing cases. That's bad right? Except that the cases seem to be 95% asymptomatic. That's a win anyway you look at it.
One particular study on it is here:
Masks Do More Than Protect Others During COVID-19: Reducing the Inoculum of SARS-CoV-2 to Protect the Wearer
I don't think wearing masks outside does anything. Driving alone in your car? Asinine. In close proximity, indoors, to people with unknown infection status? Better than nothing. Masks will stop viral laden droplets going both directions, in or out. This will give you the best chance at a low initial inoculum.
By the same token, it certainly looks like this thing burns through a region, taking out the weakest and then it's predominantly done. The Northeast went through it in March and April, the south in June and July, now it's the upper midwest's turn. Then it's mostly done, running out of hosts. It's the same everywhere. Look at where it was active in Spain in the spring, look where it's active in Spain now. They are opposites. Every country, it's the same. I hate to break it to New Zealand but eventually they are going to get the big spike. Locking the doors doesn't work forever. Maybe they can hold on until there's an effective vaccine. |
I agree with most of what you posted, except:
1) You really can't apply the term LD50 to a viral inoculum like you would to a dose of poison---the correlation between dose and death isn't that tight
2) the best way to reduce inoculum size is distance.