[Boomer]

For some reason I have been tuned in to the real estate market for almost all of my adult life though it has never been my career. Even when I am not buying or selling, I stay tuned in. I thought the hyperinflation days of the late 70's and the 80's were surreal. I was a kid, buying a house, actually my third at the time, and I can remember hunting down the mortgage and proudly bringing home a 10%, fixed rate. Quite a deal it was.

Why am I telling you tales of my youth?

Here's why...

My guess is that most of the homes that you have on the market right now are family homes. Your buyer may be relatively young and will need a mortgage. Of course, real estate is most often about the pricing of the home, but additionally it is quite often about the size of the house payment. Well, it should be anyway.

When I stop by my brick and mortar bank, I sometimes talk a little with the boss banker and the loan officer if I see them. "So how's business?" I always ask.

What I am hearing is that there's lots of re-fi shopping going on and that there are also some actual buyers out there. But there is a common denominator for those who can qualify for a mortgage. And that is the interest rate question. How low can it go?

Those who are looking for mortgages now seem to not be in any hurry overall. They think that the mortgage rates will go even lower. I think they are right. Couple that with winter in so many places, and the already depressed market slows down even more for a while.

We have never seen anything like this. Talk about surreal. Nobody knows where it is going. No matter what they say. One guess is as good as another.

But for what it is worth, I think spring and early summer may begin to shake loose some buyers. I do not for one minute think that this thing will be all over by then. But I do think that there are those who are out there to buy, but are waiting for a feeling of some kind of stabilization. Perhaps for their jobs. Perhaps for their investments. Perhaps for mortgage rates. Or for all those things.

But those who want and need to buy and who can buy will not wait forever.

But right now they are betting that the cost of buying is only going lower and they feel that they can wait and see. These are not speculators. These are real buyers who know that they may need to wait a little while and that it is not likely to cost them to do so, not in home price, not in the interest rate. There is a lot of sitting and waiting going on right now out there.

If I had a house on the market, I would price it right and keep it for sale if I knew for sure I wanted to sell it. I would want to be on the market when those solid buyers decide it is time to move forward. For now they are watching and waiting. Spring may spring a few.

We have all been around long enough to know that there is a psychology to every economy. A psychology in addition to all those stats, all those numbers.

I wish you all the best. (This just ain't right.)

Boomer