Quote:
Originally Posted by Bucco
"If the United States continues to relax social distancing restrictions and mask-wearing requirements, as many as 500,000 more Americans could die of COVID-19 between now and the end of February, according to scientists at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. That's on top of the roughly 240,000 COVID-19 deaths the country has absorbed alread"
A winter surge in COVID-19 cases seems inevitable. Can we stop it?
But is just more "propaganda" from "special interest groups" unless........
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Have the IHME models been correct about anything?
With 108 days left until the end of February there would need to be over 4,900 deaths each and every day to achieve 500,000 additional deaths. We're currently at 1,500 deaths per day and every day that we are under 4,900 means that many more need to be added to the numbers in Jan and Feb.
If we maintain a CFR of about 2% this also means we'll need to see over 231,000 new cases per day, every day, from now through February. Currently the CFR is less than 2% and we have hit a high of only 145,000 cases.
Using the same numbers, in order to see 500,000 additional deaths we would need to see something like 25,000,000 cases in the next 3 1/2 months which is nearly seven times the average over the last 8 1/2 months.
Sure, all of this could happen and we will be in a world of hurt. But again, have the IHME models been correct about anything?