Quote:
Originally Posted by Velvet
Yes, but people are not identical. The effect of density also depends on socioeconomic class etc. All high rises building populations are not alike. Therefore a calculus integral would not reflect the probability of Covid cases per area correctly, in my opinion.
What I was thinking was that there are large geographic areas in the US which have a low density for population. I know you may say that “per capita” takes that into account. My thinking is there are many factors which determine an equivalent comparison of different countries or even counties.
My guess is you may have an applied science type of background from your suggestion. In the social sciences we tend to use statistical analysis, regressive equations because more dissimilar factors can be included.
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Originally when I read your post I thought it was a criticism of Operation Warp Speed because we had a large total of Covid 19 cases. After rereading it I think your intent was to say that the total would be much lower if everyone wore a mask and didn’t act like rebellious teenagers.
I agree regression or statistical analysis would be the most practical way of proving your hypotheses which is, I think,
“If everyone wears a mask, then the number of Covid 19 cases will be reduced by X percent.”
As you point out this is a multivariate regression analysis and the t-test would be used to test the statistical significance of each coefficient and the assumption of linearity in the coefficients would have to be investigated as well. (as best I remember)
A stratified sampling approach would be needed for statistical analysis again because of
the non homogeneity of the population.
Either way it sounds like it is too complicated to give an answer in a short timeframe, more like a public health PhD thesis. I think that’s why simpler metrics like cases per hundred thousand or totals are used. Maybe AI will help make those computations easier in the future.
We always wear masks and haven’t had friends over since March. Very boring but necessary.
My background is math/physics undergrad and finance/economics graduate . Worked in an engineering department.