Talk of The Villages Florida - View Single Post - Real Estate market turning?
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Old 02-13-2009, 06:56 PM
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Dirigo Dirigo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by l2ridehd View Post
For 3.5 years I have been tracking listed price vs selling price. I get the listing price from 3 sources. The Villages VLS listings, MLS using Realtor.com and Lylesellsfla.com and FSBO. Probably not 100%, but at least 90% plus of the available market. Then I use the county web sites to get the actual selling price. Marion and Sumter were easy, Lake a little more challenge, but also less Villages homes sold there. I had to get on a couple Realtors e-mail lists in order to get home addresses, but that was easy to do as well.

I threw out the top and bottom 5% variance. The reason for that is you will see a home on the market for 280K that sold for 335K and another 280K that sold for 190K. I was able to track down a couple of these strange sales and found that one home sold with a new golf cart, a car, and furnished and another time one was bought by a child of the owner. It helps get a truer picture of the actual market and what you as a buyer or seller could expect. I have about 3 years of this data. For the past 6 months I have only tracked Sumter county as that was where I was most interested. However the county does not seem to matter very much, Marion, Lake or Sumter.

What the data shows on average is for VLS, selling price runs 95% - 96% of asking price and for MLS its 94% - 95% and FSBO runs 89% - 91 % of asking price. Again this is an average and even by removing the top and bottom 5% there are still a few that fall out of this range on both sides.

For a while I tried to track the new home sales, but found that very difficult as most sold for just a little over asking price. I assume that is because people add some extra item. But is was still close to 100% almost every time so not worth tracking.

You are my kind of guy!

As someone who has spent the last 17 years in the property valuation business I must say I am impressed with your research. I have started doing the very same thing from the same data sources and have begun to draw the same conclusion. Once in a while you see an outlier, a clinker, and you know there were other circumstances involved with the sale. I did see a villa that sold for $95K but it must have been a family sale or a serious fixer upper.

After you understand the system it must be fairly routine to keep your data up to date, but you must have been quite a while setting it up and learning the lingo for Map Lot Block Unit etc.

Do you have this data in a spreadsheet? If so, if I send you a PM would you be willing to share it with me? I would love to see it!

Dirigo
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Last edited by Dirigo; 02-13-2009 at 10:29 PM.