[tuccillo]

In order to use the vaccine efficacy stats correctly you need to know the probability of developing COVID if you are exposed. The vaccine efficacy stat really represents the reduction in the probability that you will develop COVID if you are vaccinated when compared to not being vaccinated. Again, it is a probability. For example, say your probability of developing COVID if you are exposed is 5% if you are not vaccinated. If you are vaccinated with the Moderna vaccine then the probability of developing COVID would drop to 0.25% (20x reduction in the probability since the efficacy is 95%). Efficacy stats are probably best used to compare different vaccines but how the trails are conducted is always different (for example, the definition of a "positive" result was not the same for the different trials and the different trials did not use the same control and test groups) so it is a bit of an apples-to-oranges comparison. Also, keep in mind that one of the results from the trials was that nobody who was vaccinated developed severe symptoms.

Originally Posted by LiverpoolWalrus

In talking to folks, they don’t seem to realize that the 95% efficacy rate of Covid vaccines means that the vaccine will not offer complete protection 5% of the time. If the vaccine fails in 5% of people who receive the vaccine and are later infected, that 5% still has a risk of mild symptoms.*

So even if we assume that everyone is vaccinated, 5 out of every 100 people are still going to be susceptible to Covid. The good news for everyone, inoculated or not is (and it’s the same good news we’ve had all along):

1. Not everyone who is out and about is going to get infected. Far from it. Covid has only infected a minority of the population. Yes there are millions of symptom-free infected people who don’t know they are/were infected, but when you tally the total of known and statistical infections, the majority of the population has not been infected, even after a year.

2. IF you are unvaccinated and get infected, you have an 80% chance of having no symptoms or a mild case with no long term effects. Repeat - 80%. That percentage is the aggregate and accounts for all age groups with or without comorbidities. And it means that if you are quite elderly AND have a compromised immune system, you’ll probably STILL be okay. This fact is all over the internet from reputable sources, but the media doesn’t publicize it. It also means, however, that you have a 20% chance of having symptoms, perhaps severe symptoms.

That said, the vaccinated people are not 100% protected. They still have a 5% chance of having symptoms and I’m not sure they understand this. They do seem to understand, because Fauci said so, that they do still have a chance of being a carrier and passing it on to someone else if they get infected.

So I ask: Most of us were VERY concerned when we had a 20% chance. Some were petrified. Why aren’t we still wringing our hands and clutching our pearls with a 5% chance? Is it because the vaccine seems to be 100% effective against hospitalization and death?*

The only solution is people need to continue to stay home. No restaurants, no town squares, continue to have your goods delivered to your home. Keep them quarantined for a week and then sanitize them. Never touch your face with unwashed hands. No guests of any kind in your home.

And if you do need to go out, wear two masks, stay 6 feet apart. And don’t shake hands with anyone.

That’s how you stay safe.

Me, I have not left my home in a year, and I will stay home until Covid disappears whether I get vaccinated or not.


* Source: COVID-19 vaccines: What does 95% efficacy actually mean? | Live Science