Quote:
Originally Posted by Hiltongrizz11
This virus is virtually no risk for over 99% of the population. If you are afraid stay home. Let the rest of us keep the world open so you have one to come back to after you've cowered away for so long.
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I have seen this over 99% on TOTV many times. Where does your number come from? I'll present some numbers for your consideration
There are about 330 million living in the US
There have been 560 thousand Covid deaths out of 31,000,000 positive tests. So the death rate alone is 560000/31000000 which is already a 1.8% fatality rate. We know that some of those 31 million positive tests are repeats in the same person so the denominator of the calculation is somewhat falsely elevated. The fatality rate is actually higher than 1.8%
A fatality rate of 1.85 clearly on its own is much higher than under 1% you have reported. And you seem to believe by using the phrase "This virus is virtually no risk" that death is the only risky outcome of catching Covid.
10% of Covid patients, including both those ill enough to be hospitalized but also those with mild symptoms become "
long haulers" which means they have life altering symptoms for months following the acute illness.
So we now are at abt 2% death and 10% long term symptoms, or 12% of those who get Covid get serious outcomes. Add the many patients who get really sick but do not get long term complications which includes most of those hospitalized and you have a large number of people, many many multiple of less than 1% for whom Covid is a serious medical disease. Somehow I think those who ended up in the hospital but not dead or long hauling would want to be included in the Covid is bad group, not the Covid is a low risk disease group.
2 million Americans have been sick enough with Covid to be hospitalized. That is 1 in 15 positive tests. Are you surprised that 7% of those with Covid get hospitalized? I was.
Maybe it is time to stop writing that Covid is no risk for 99% of the population. Everyone in the population is at risk with much lower risk numbers for children. Yes, I have used outcomes of those who got Covid to make a point, not percentages of the entire population. Why? If you know that 100% of the population has been at risk of the disease you can use the disease outcome as an estimate to how the disease would act in the whole population. But if you reject this thinking:
2 million hospitalized, 3 million long haulers, 1/2 million dead so that is already 5.5 million out of 330 million, or nearly 2% of just those seriously impacted.