[Bill14564]

Originally Posted by blueash

Sorry. Remember in math class how the teacher said to show all your work. I failed to do that. The 52 is not 52 million people, it is 52 weeks in a year. If you know the number of deaths in one week and you want to know, if that rate continues, how many deaths will there be in a year, you need to multiple the deaths by 52.

Example 5 people died in Smithville from gunshots last week where the population is one million. What is the yearly death rate from gunshots?

Answer If 5 people die every week then in one year 5 times 52 will die, or 260 deaths per million

The issue with the Covid vaccine clot number is that so far all the reports are in a one week time frame. I'd like to think that the vaccine only may present a very tiny risk of clots to a particular patient segment for a short time, but I don't have enough data to say that yet. The question in assessing whether the shot causes clots is whether the expected number of clots detected is any different than the expected number in an unvaccinated population, the background rate.

The announcement that the clots are only seen in one per million is accurate but all the cases appeared in a one week period. If new clots continue to form each and every week then you'd get 52 per million in a year. I was comparing that to the background rate of 13 per million per year which is the highest number I saw in my brief literature search.

If 13 per million people get clots a year, then the weekly rate is 1/52 of the yearly rate. In the gunshot example if I tell you that 260 per million die in a year, to get the weekly rate you have to divide the 260 by 52 to get 5 deaths per million per week. If 13 die in a year then 1/4 person dies per week. In the Covid vaccines the rate described is 1 per million doses in one week.

There are lots of wrong assumptions here I hope. I truly believe that if there is a causal relationship of the adenoviral vaccines [J & J and AZ] that there is likely a very brief period of risk and that it will not be ongoing. But until i have that data, like the gunshot situation, I can use a short term finding and extend it. See why I didn't show my work!

You claim that the reported clotting events were all from a single week but where did you get that idea? Do you mean to imply that there have been more events but those were not counted since they were not from the particular week?

I have seen reports of 169 events from 34M AZ injections with no reference to which week of the year these were reported. In fact, the paper that mentioned the 169 events initially discussed 62 events but added in a footnote that the number had climbed to 169 over time.