Talk of The Villages Florida - View Single Post - Bill Mahar tests positive for COVID
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Old 05-15-2021, 10:12 AM
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Originally Posted by tuccillo View Post
No, that is not correct. The "5%" or "95%" number is from the Phase 3 trials and is the efficacy of the vaccine (Pfizer and Moderna have about the same number but the testing conditions were a bit different). The efficacy is the ratio of the number of positive cases from the test group and the number of positive cases from the control group. This represents the reduction in the probability of you developing COVID if you are exposed and if you are fully vaccinated when compared to someone who wasn't vaccinated. This represents a 20x reduction in the probability. The breakthrough infections for the Phase 3 test group was about 0.02%; nowhere near 5%. The breakthrough percentage for the approximately 100M fully vaccinated is about 0.008%.
Absolutely!!!! But this is the semantic distinction that some "grumpy" people are trying to make. Yes, mathematically 0.008% is not zero. But in the real world of epidemiology it is hardly worth mentioning the difference. And please, no one now state that if you are the 1 in 13,000 breakthrough cases, of which almost none die, that it is worth mentioning. You cannot dictate national or international policy based on a miniscule number of cases