Quote:
Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy
Most of the time there is inflation. . very seldom is there deflation. . . the issue is how much and for how long which the OP didn't really address. . . Currently there is a calculation basis issue causing year over year inflation to calculate much higher due to the 3 months of deflation a year ago due to the economic shut down. However, if you look at the two year annualized inflation, its not up that much.
However, the sudden opening and the lack of employees is causing labor inflation which hasn't been seen in a long time. The reason for the lack of employees is NOT the unemployment checks, but a little more nuanced. First, there is not the availability for daycare for dual working families, so there are fewer employees available than prior to the pandemic as one has to take care of the kids. Secondly, the quantity of prime age employees in the US population is now shrinking. That is right, there are now less available employees available therefore there will be labor inflation as a battle for employees. I posted a Barry Ritholtz article that most people didn't believe, but there is more to employment than just the unemployment check size. But go ahead and believe the easy answer, its your right.
Working Age Population: Aged 15-64: All Persons for the United States (LFWA64TTUSM647S) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
There are other issues with very low inflation, such as companies can't increase prices, go for increasing volume, but that is much harder, and if volume can't be increased, then the only way to grow profits is to cut overhead costs, which is primarily corporate labor, thus more unemployment. . . and less maintenance and more automation as a fixed expense without inflation.
but its getting late. .
finance guy |
Everyone of these posts, OPINIONS, are spun by selected facts.
Two old expressions-Figures don't lie but liars can figure. The other Figures don't lie but if you choke them hard enough you can make them say whatever you want.
The dollar has lost 6% of it's value this year. The CPI, consumer price index is up 5%.
We know today, we know the past, both are we should know SPUN,
In any case using the CPI of 5% in 14 years it will take over two dollars to buy what a dollar buys today. The ten year treasury is paying roughly 1.4%.
Inflation is good for debtors. Our government owes roughly 30 trillion dollars. I've freely admitted that I do not comprehend one Trillion let alone 30 of them. Few as they speak realize or face that truth. Devaluing the dollar by simply pulling them out of thin air. Does not ever in history end well. The dollar has lost 6% of it's value this year. The government, another term we the people, owe 30 TRILLION DOLLARS. As I said I do not comprehend
one trillion. Most if they think will realize they don't either. What is 6% of 30 Trillion?
My answer, really grand thief.
We do not control inflation, the un-elected FED does