Irma was either a cat1 or a tropical storm when it was closest to The Villages and was not a "direct hit" on The Villages. The track of the center of the circulation was west of us - closer to Crystal River than The Villages. As I have previously stated, this is of little actual consequence since the circulation was pretty wide when it was nearest to us. The true track of the center of the circulation matters for forecast verification purposes.
Wilma was not a cat5 hurricane over Florida. It was a cat2 or cat3 over FL and exited FL around Boca, IIRC. It was moving to the east/northeast after coming out of the Gulf.
There is no "right" or "wrong" with weather forecasting. We deal with probabilities of events happening. All forecasts have error bars, either implicitly or explicitly stated, and the errors decrease as we get close to the actual event. I know people want "yes" and "no" answers but few things in science work that way.
Weather forecasting is based, in part, on numerical integration of the Navier-Stokes equations of fluid motion plus computations of radiative transfer, parameterized turbulence including boundary layer effects, and phase change of water. This is an initial value problem where the initial state is known with various epsilons and is inherently a chaotic system, which places limits on predictability.
Quote:
Originally Posted by davem4616
most of the homes in TV are safe to hunker down in during a hurricane, exception being the modular homes in the historic section
in 2017 we hunkered down here when TV took a direct hit with a hurricane...we had absolutely no damage...our home is block construction, not stick...but even the stick homes held up. The design of the roofs is critical, the developer got it right
back in 2008 we hunkered down during a Cat 5 direct hit from Wilma when we were in Ft Lauderdale, no damage (again in a block house construction)
if you're uncomfortable staying after listening to the Weather Channel on the television then seek higher ground that is away from the projected path....I do sense that the Weather Channel has become far too dramatic over the years and has a tendency to scare the heck out of people.
best job in the world is being a weather forecaster....if you're wrong and the storm misses, you get a pass,...if you nailed it and you get hit, everybody thinks you're great and says thanks. it's a win/win
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