Quote:
Originally Posted by Swoop
There have been 34,249,031cases is Covid in the US. Basically 10% of the population. So, statistically the death total could double from its current number, if the 20% figure holds true.
Not 3,300,000, not 600,000…
Better check your math!!!!
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But if we use those numbers then we have to accept a death rate of 1.8% (survival rate of 98.2% which I suppose is still "well over 90%")
But more, if we consider that 0-17 year olds account for 30% of the cases but only 350 deaths then that means that 608,000 deaths came from 24M cases for a survival rate of only 97.5% for the rest of us.
If we take the US population at 330M, the CDC percentage of Americans under 18 at 22%, your 20% infection rate, the 34M that have already been infected, the current vaccine acceptance of approximately 60%, and the 2.5% death rate then we would expect about another 175,000 deaths (784,000 overall). So yes, the 3.3M number was far too high and the 600,000 number was too low.
Then back to the post I originally commented on, is it fear mongering to be concerned about the potential for only another 175,000 deaths?