Quote:
Originally Posted by WesMan
NO masks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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That's a blanket statement and an overreach. Masks still have
some use in
some situations on
some people. But I do have a problem with parts of the latest CDC guidance. Let's take a look at what they said and what they then advised:
Their statement was: New data suggests that
some fully vaccinated people
with a breakthrough case can still transmit the virus.
OK, first of all, how many breakthrough cases are there really? The last number they released based on 180 million vaccinated was 0.01%. This probably an undercount, just seems too good to be true, but it is a starting point. Since then, they have moved away from counting "cases" based on a COVID test because of "unreliability" and are looking at hospitalizations and deaths. (But interesting in the new guidance they want fully vaccinated individuals that have an exposure to get a COVID test in 3-5 days----go figure!).
Next, what percentage is "some"--1%, 99%, something in between???
Third---simple math. Lets assume the breakthrough rate is way off, like undercounted by 100 fold--that would give a breakthrough rate of 1%. So
SOME, lets say 50% of fully vaccinated individuals who unknowingly have a breakthrough infection or a whopping total of 0.5% of fully vaccinated individuals can transmit the virus at any given time.
Next, who are they going to infect? The unvaccinated, of course. Because using our 1% breakthrough number they can only transmit the virus to 1 in 100
vaccinated people. So now, the chance of a vaccinated person infecting another vaccinated person is .01 x 0.5 x0.01 = .0005, or 1 in 20,000. And for this
EVERYONE has to wear a mask???? Again, it looks like those that followed the advice to get vaccinated and did they right thing are forced to protect those that chose to take their chances. Well, we should just let the dice roll for them at this point, they made their decision, probably because they
knew more than the experts(
)
So , IMHO, I think the CDC did an overreach with this new guidance, and now the dominoes are falling all over