Quote:
Originally Posted by Cobullymom
I had Covid and I wasn’t vaccinated, and I’m not young, nor old, nor dead, I’m actually doing fine…people and their fear mongering…never ends
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sample size 1, statistically not a valid sample size.
The problem with humans and social media, is that they believe that sample size of 1 from a friend or relative or poster is a statistically valid view point to support their beliefs. . . there is a virologist doctor in MA whose mother in law believes the sample size of 1 over the researcher highly educated doctor. . .
A book called "Death of Expertise" studies this phenomena and does support the conclusion that yes, a layperson can be right when the educated/expert is wrong,
BUT the educated will be right much, much more often than the layperson is right
look at lots of data, large sample sizes, not the same answers at all, but the human brain has a hard time processing small non zero probabilities. . . due to the the cognitive bias of over optimism
http://25cognitivebiases.com/bias-13...optimism-bias/
link through twitter of a covid hospitalization self documentation
https://twitter.com/i/status/1423260524637298689
a non believer until it happens to him personally. . .
you can learn from others or you can learn from experience, in this case i choose to learn from others. . . the experience might not end the way i want. . .
data guy