Quote:
Originally Posted by SkBlogW
Between April 4 and June 19, before Delta’s rise, fully vaccinated people accounted for 5 percent of cases, 7 percent of hospitalizations and 8 percent of deaths. Those figures roughly doubled between June 20 to July 17 as the variant spread. Fully vaccinated individuals accounted for 18 percent of cases, 14 percent of hospitalizations and 16 percent of deaths.
New CDC studies show waning vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization in elderly
So cases doubled in a month, as delta began its surge
Attachment 90761
So two months ago CDC reported fully vaccinated individuals accounted for 18 percent of cases, 14 percent of hospitalizations and 16 percent of deaths
Take a look at the graph and estimate the percentages of breakthough cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in fully vaccinated people as delta surged from July 17 until present.
Vaccine passports anyone? |
This infection rate for vaccinated people is in line with the latest from the CDC about where effectiveness is now six months after most of us in The Villages got vaccinated: about 90% for Moderna, 85% for Pfizer, and less for the Johnson & Johnson single dose. Combine all those and that’s relatively close. The article you cite is from “Politico,” and you have used the information accurately. However, I went to the CDC web site and found the just-released study and found the source of the information. Politico definitely cherry-picked the most alarming sentences while not mentioning the paragraphs just above or after, which provide very different pictures. Here are all three paragraphs:
“During April 4–July 17, a total of 569,142 (92%) COVID-19 cases, 34,972 (92%) hospitalizations, and 6,132 (91%) COVID-19–associated deaths were reported among persons not fully vaccinated, and 46,312 (8%) cases, 2,976 (8%) hospitalizations, and 616 (9%) deaths were reported among fully vaccinated persons in the 13 jurisdictions (Table). The weekly prevalence of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant increased from <1% to 90% during April 4–July 17. Full vaccination coverage increased from 19% to 54%; in the final week, coverage ranged by age group from 45% (in persons aged 18–49 years) to 73% (≥65 years).
“During April 4–June 19, fully vaccinated persons accounted for 5% of cases, 7% of hospitalizations, and 8% of deaths overall; these percentages were higher during June 20–July 17 (18%, 14%, and 16%, respectively). Using the reported 37% vaccination coverage for the 13 jurisdictions during April 4–June 19 and an assumption of 90% VE, vaccinated persons would have been expected to account for 6% of cases (close to the 5% observed). With 53% coverage reported during June 20–July 17, vaccinated persons were expected to account for 10% of cases at a constant VE of 90%; the observed 18% would have been expected at a lower VE of 80%.
“[NOTE THIS PARAGRAPH!] Averaged weekly, age-standardized rates (events per 100,000 persons) were higher among persons not fully vaccinated than among fully vaccinated persons for reported cases (112.3 versus 10.1), hospitalizations (9.1 versus 0.7), and deaths (1.6 versus 0.1) during April 4–June 19, as well as during June 20–July 17 (89.1 versus 19.4; 7.0 versus 0.7; 1.1 versus 0.1, respectively). Higher hospitalization and death rates were observed in older age groups, regardless of vaccination status, resulting in a larger impact of age-standardization on overall incidence for these outcomes.”
That means, again, that in a given week, at a time when 90% of the Covid-19 cases are the Delta variant, among the UNVACCINATED, in a group of 100,000 people, 89.1 caught the virus, 7 were hospitalized, and 1.1 died. (So of every 7 unvaccinated people who go to the hospital, 1 dies and 6 live to go home and try to recover from it.) Among the VACCINATED, out of 100,000 people in the general population, 19.4 caught the virus, 0.7 had to be hospitalized, and 0.1 died. That means ONE person in a MILLION who was vaccinated DIED in that week.
Another way of looking at it is to say that in that week, out of 100,000 people in one week, 99,911 who were NOT vaccinated did NOT get sick. If you multiply that by 52 weeks, however, it looks like roughly one UNvaccinated person in 20 would get Covid and 0.6 out of 100 would die IN A YEAR. My math may be wrong here.
Here’s the link:
Monitoring Incidence of COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Status — 13 U.S. Jurisdictions, April 4–July 17, 2021 | MMWR
By the way, here are a couple useful charts of where various news sources fall on the political spectrum and the reliability spectrum. Worth saving and framing.