[Dana1963]

Originally Posted by sounding

I agree. While the models are very, very slowly getting better, the big problem, which is rarely mentioned, is the lack of data. Satellites can see more that we did years ago, but they can't tell us the storm's central pressure or maximum wind speeds -- which are critical for model input. And there are more factors too, which are discussed at the Villages Weather Club meetings. Interestingly, those annual hurricane seasonal outlooks, which I'll talk about on Monday, are not based on weather or climate models at all -- but purely statistical analyses.

Weather people either are half right or half wrong and still get to keep their jobs and always have excuses.