Steve,

You are one of the most perceptive people on this board. And I share your respect for the professional capabilities of our various government agencies - be it DHS, our military including the Coast Guard, FEMA, CIA, etc. This situation, I believe, is different from anything we may have anticipated - a 'black swan' if you will.

The Mexican Government is struggling in its war, and yes it is a war, with the drug cartels. Mexican income from the manufacturing plants along the border with the US is rapidly decreasing as US demand for their products drop. Oil prices are dropping precipitately, meaning that the income from oil is dropping rapidly. Tourism, Mexico's second largest industry, after drugs, is already collapsing. It is not a stretch to see that our neighbor to the south may well drop into a state of anarchy similar to that of Somalia or the area along the Afghanistan/Pakistan border. If that even comes close to happening, the implications for us are potentially disastrous!

Concurrently, we are already seeing the impact in our country. Central Florida, like much of the United States, lives on income from tourism and vacations. This is already drying up as people elect to cocoon rather than vacation. Will we, like Mexico, close the schools, sports events, churches, etc? We may have to. Imagine the NBA playoffs without a single spectator in the stands - this is the way soccer matches are being played today in Mexico. And this is less than two weeks into Swine Flu or as our government wants to call it, "H1N1 flu." Now doesn't that make us all feel better?

As I pointed out earlier in this thread, it disgusts me that members of Congress from both sides of the aisle have tried to use this to partisan advantage. This 'pandemic' may fizzle out, it may be the worst we have seen since the flu epidemics of the early 20th century (I truly have prayed to God that it get not worse than this) or it may wind up somewhere in between. In any case, this is not time for partisanship.

I have never been a one to call, 'wolf', but do believe that we may face a unique challenge here. Aside from the possible deaths, the potential effect of the collapse of the Mexican economy upon the United States is very real. Should Al-Queada use this time to strike on tourism sites or simply our markets, the current recession could turn into something much, much worse.

Just my thoughts,

Wayne