Quote:
Originally Posted by biker1
You are trying to draw an analogy between cellphones and cars? Really? The problem is that there are approximately 100 million new vehicles sold each year, worldwide. Yeah, that is a big number and the infrastructure to support that doesn't materialize overnight. It will take more than a decade to develop the manufacturing capacity to build that many electrics. Battery manufacturing capacity is the big issue. Toyota, the largest automaker in the world at 10 million cars per year, is making very slow progress and does not have an all electric vehicle for sale in the US. The legacy automakers cannot move that fast. They have all pretty much said so. Some may go out of business. Even the US Government doesn't believe it as the new tax credit legislation includes hybrids. Best guess is we will be at 50% all electric vehicles (new sales) in 10 years, and that would be quite an accomplishment.
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Excellent response, and hard to dispute your position, seriously very good and valid points.
But, 10 years ago everyone said you could not design a rocket to launch and land and be reused within weeks. Everyone laughed, now it is routine for SpaceX.
Smartphones, 13 years ago millions in first world countries, today about 5 billion of them, and all those cell towers to support them.
I don't know how it is going to happen, I just believe it will.
Combining automated AI manufacturing, repurposing gas stations (infrastructure) to charging stations (for profit) existing factories - Toyota, Honda, GM, Ford, etc, etc, etc. All switching to EVs. Tesla alone now has over 25,000 superchargers.
Distributed generation with localized mass storage battery systems (Tesla has them in several countries already) and I saw in the news a few days ago several states are considering legislation to build public charging stations.
It will certainly be interesting to see where we are in ten years.
Oh, and 11 years ago the first iPad came out, and Apple alone has sold more than 500 million of them. I think if you include Andriod tablets there are around 60 to 70 million sold per quarter now.
Lots of big numbers.
When money is to be made, companies will find a way to hurry up.