Some educated guesses,
You’re absolutely right neither end if life nor investment life are certain, but here are some thoughts.
Your best predictors of your life span are your parents and grandparents due to your genes etc. I know my parents and grandparents all lived to approximately the same ages. The one study I read indicated that, by not including any parents or grandparents who died of accidents, war, etc., if you add 4 years to the age of your parents when they each died, and 8 years to each of your grandparents, the average is your best prediction of end of life.
As far as investment returns, in the long term, the stock market (as a whole) returns 9 or 10% annually. Fixed income investments are down in the 2-to-4%. Netting a balanced portfolio against average inflation you’re looking at 3-to-5% maybe? The old rule of thumb of spending 3-4% annually of your portfolio means that your investments will last your lifetime?
Just some thoughts. Lots of variables
|