Quote:
Originally Posted by blueash
I do need to come back and say I got my math, wrong in the original post. I may be a little math challenged myself. 0.05% of 1 million is 500 not 50
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Actually, I have a feeling there is a problem with this study that showed a 0.05% false positive rate. From the article:
"Researchers from the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management published their peer-reviewed findings in the journal JAMA earlier this month. They looked at the results of more than 900,000 rapid antigen tests conducted over 537 workplaces in Canada between January and October 2021.
During this period, Canada had two significant waves of COVID-19 driven by the Delta variant. A total of 1,322 positive results were logged with rapid tests. Of these cases, 1,103 also had data from a PCR test to compare against.
In total, 462 rapid test results, or 0.05 per cent of the 900,000 results, resulted in false positives. This represents 42 per cent of the positive test results in the study."
I just find it unlikely that they only had 1,322 positive results out of 900,000 tests---that equals a positivity rate of 0.1468%, when we have been running positivity rates in the US of 20, 30, and even 40+% in some areas. Then, the "false positive" tests were 462, representing, yes, 0.05 of 900,000 but a whopping 42% of the positives. So, in other words, if your home test was positive, there is a 42% chance it is false, not 0.05%. I would think further studies are needed.