Quote:
Originally Posted by jimjamuser
OK, I will start with.....there are NO ABSOLUTE facts about anything. The closest is mathematics and even that subject changes and has gray areas. So, if there are no facts then a link would be only as good as the expert/opinion of the author of the link. So, basically, I don't memorize links or EVER even TRY to look one up to prove something that I say. Anyway, EVEN if I did take the time to prove it, then at least 1/2 of the posters would poo-poo it and say "no-way that does NOT prove anything because my (meaning their) mind is totally hardened on the subject....
........Nevertheless, I will say that what I posted was to the BEST of my knowledge and memory. It is MORE than just my opinion yet less than a mathematical truth or even a link (that was 100% factual, which would be impossible). 15 years ago I began investing. I have made over 100 purchases and sales of ETFs and individual stocks, probably more. That is probably about average for a TV Lander. I get 90% of ALL of my stock info from the 2 daily Fast $ shows. About 7 years ago I heard the election year theory of market value timing (and note that it is stronger during the 4-year cycle of a Presidential election. I then heard it repeated about 5 years ago, which, to me, was a confirming 2nd time. Incidentally,
there is another interesting market timing and more long-term and EVEN likely to be more controversial to TV Landers - namely, that the stock market, normally, has increased MORE during one party's time in office vs the other. And guess which is which?
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.......So, to re-cap the election-year timing method, I had it stated and confirmed on Fast $ and I also stated MY opinion for WHY it made sense to ME - that is that both big and small investors prefer the MORE stabilized knowledge that they have after a 4th year Presidential Election when they know who won! So, this IS WAY more than just MY opinion!
........And the last sentence written by the poster that responded to my post said something to the effect that 90% of the time the year after the midterm Election that the market goes up. Which actually proves my point except that I added that the effect is stronger in the year AFTER a Presidential Election. So, typically after the election in early Nov. the market goes up through Xmas, JAN, Feb, and about March then levels off for the summer and then it likely moves up in anticipation of Xmas sales for that non-election year. So, it is likely that the WHOLE year AFTER a Presidential Election that the market it up. But, I don't depend on that. I take my ELECTION YEAR profits in about March and then I re-evaluate around October depending on Xmas retail sales forecasts. .......sorry that this was so long!