So sitting on this side of the pond and not being a military expert - but having studied a little history my guess is.
1) Russie is blocking all external access to the internet this week for its citizens (Eg. no more VPN so no more balanced view and not more dissension).
2) Internal PR will go into overdrive so Russian residents believe that this is merely a military campaign to oust the NAZI and evil West. (remember WW2 - The German people were brainwashed to believe the lies of their leaders). China is also not far behind the same thing with Hong Kong AND Taiwan moving under draconian control.
3) China is really behind this - feeding both US and Russia with info to cause infighting and weaken both parties - divide and conquer. - I have no proof - it's mere speculation.
4) China will step in when things start getting out of hand and broker a settlement (a more palatable conclusion than armageddon) - by which time China will not be hampered by the huge debts of war incurred on top of the huge debts of Covid. Lest we forget that China already has many financial problems of its own - War is a great way to resolve those debts - either by leveling up the opposition (eg East/West) OR taking control of the opposition's assets. This may be the start of the great leveling up around the world and potentially the start of more peace - or the start of a 100-year war....the outcome of which will not be pleasant.
5) We are all thinking of conventional warfare. Russia doesn't work like that. Yes, the Ukrainian people can fight a long-term gorilla war but Russia now has vacuum bombs and isn't frightened to use them. Flatten first - chemical warfare second. Higher casualties for the indigenous population - but potentially swifter in the long run... HOWEVER - you can NEVER kill people's spirits which may fester for generations - as we see all over the world with repeated conflicts over the same ground with the same arguments.
Like I said - I am not a military expert - just an observer of human actions. As the original author implied - If you want to predict the future read the past.
And to end with - we are all the pawns in the game of a few. Whether American, British, European, Russian, or Chinese. We will pay the price at the tills, through our lives or the lives of the younger generations who now fight. We are all the same - as an enlightened and very frightened Russian friend said to me over the weekend in what they think will be their last VPN posting - we are the 's' people that are expendable to those with self-interest for power. We are all the same so do not automatically blame the peasants for the crimes of the dictator - even if the peasant supposedly committed an unseemly action - that had they not have been indoctrinated with lies they would not have performed...
|