Quote:
Originally Posted by Blueblaze
Achieveable? Sure. But not with the current battery technology. We've still got 100 years worth of fossil fuels left. What's the hurry?
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Well, I agree, and so do all the engineers (including Musk) that the battery chemistry has to improve before mass production is viable, but here are two things that come to mind about the "rush".
1. It will take, probably, at least 50 years to wean ourselves from high energy density fossil fuels in all fields, manufacturing, transportation, medicine, farming, electrical generations, heating, cooling, etc, etc, etc. Everywhere it is used. That change should probably happen BEFORE we run out. The 100 years is one estimate, there are others, and there is no point to debating the exact number. Oil is a finite resource. It will run out some day. If we don't have in place a viable replacement BEFORE it runs out, how do you think that is going to turn out for cities like NYNY that have 25,000 trucks moving in and out of the city every day bringing food and products and taking out trash and garbage? That is just one large city.
2. Oil is a finite resource and used in a lot of places, like medicine, fertilizer, etc. And if we waste what we have left moving 5,000 lb of metal car carrying 200 lbs of people meat (4 percent payload - LOL!) back and forth to work, then we may find some of those life saving medicines might not be available when we need them later. And all those crops that feed our 7 billion people might struggle without fertilizer.
Just saying, waiting until you HAVE to do something is not always the best choice, when it can become a matter of life and death.
So, my feeling is let's start now, like Tesla is, and let those that can or want to afford to be early adopters fund it. Let them be the pioneers that refine and develop the tech.
Better to slowly grow the number of EVs over a couple decades, so we can learn where the bugs are and how to make them safer, and better and cheaper, and etc etc etc.
Then when we need them, we will have a pretty good idea how to make them - or maybe we will have figured out that they are not the best way to go, and look someplace else, like hydrogen fuel cells, or maybe micro nuke power plants, or who knows.