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Old 04-21-2022, 08:53 AM
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Originally Posted by MartinSE View Post
Tesla has several orders we know of, but can't produce the trucks right now because they can not produce enough batteries to keep up with the demand of the auto market.

The design is complete-ish, and it waiting for batteries to begin delivery.

Tesla is building more battery factories as fast as they can around the world, and upgrading existing factories to "better" batteries.

I expect they will start delivering functional beta's within a year. I also expect at least for a year or two they will require a driver to be present - "just in case". But the advantages are so enormous that customers are ready to pounce when they become available.

Currently there are around 300,000 to 500,000 long haul drivers in the US. I expect it will take at least 5 to 10 years to produce that many trucks.

Also, other truck companies have announced they are going to be producing soon. There are several components. The engines may be produced by one company, the cabs and trailers by another. The software for the Full Self Driving yet another. I read that Cummins has announce some electric drive trains, I am not sure if they are long haul or not.

Detroit has also announced electric drive trains to their product lines, I do not know their delivery schedules.

I expect a diesel drive train could be installed in a FSD (Full Self Driving) chassis, but I have not heard of anyone planning that. I don't see why that would be "harder" than electric, and so that could help increase the rate of conversion to "robot" FSD long haul trucks.
trains are electric driven, it takes big Diesel engine to drive the generator to produce the electricity to move the train ( the original hybrid engine producing vehicle) Now I guess could have train load of battery cars 20 deep and wrap them out every 100 or two hundred miles. Take a lot of energy to move train and that’s on level ground.
Trains have been electric driven when they retired steam engine trains. As far as long haul trucks not going to happen in my life , one ot two hundred miles is not long haul IMO.