Quote:
Originally Posted by Stu from NYC
Not so sure prices will go down, the materials going into a battery might skyrocket as rare earth metals are now produced in only a handful of countries most of them not exactly friendly.
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I certainly can not disagree with you. Tesla is the worlds largest battery producer, and they can not keep up with their own needs. That is their major advantage BTW over all the other manufacturers. I don't think any of the big guys make batteries yet, I think GM (maybe?) just announced a deal with Panasonic for batteries)
I do think in the next 10 years when EVs are mass produced all over the world we will have to have a new technology to power them. I have no idea what that might be - Maybe Tesla's (the scientist, not the car) idea of RF distribution of electricity (doubtful, but fun to think about everyones hair standing on end.). Maybe micro-nukes? Dunno, lots of work in that area. I think the silver bullet would be some form of power generation onboard the car (again micro-nuke maybe) is the best solution, since it solves the charging issues. Oh and of course the idea of renting batteries instead of buying them, but there are a lot of "social" issues - many people will not like trading their brand new batteries for used ones. But, it is certainly a way forward that solves the charging time, you can swap batteries in 5 minutes.
But, I think we can grow at least 5 years maybe/hopefully 10 before batteries are replaced.
So, yeah, it may end up that the cars are dirt cheap, but the batteries cost a fortune.