[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by Plinker

Are all attempts at market timing bad?
During our accumulation phase (working years), we were 90/10. Now that we have entered our distribution phase, we are 25/75. Yes, a very conservative portfolio. The 75% and SS easily covers our expenses while the 25% is to counter inflation. We diligently saved all we could for 30+ years in low-cost index funds. We split our qualified contributions between ROTH and traditional accounts (IRA, 401k and 403b). There came a time when we were no longer eligible for a ROTH. I never sold and kept on buying when the markets cratered and have been rewarded due to the wonders of compounded interest. At the time, I had no idea how powerful a ROTH IRA would become.
However, now with less time ahead than behind me, I have reconsidered the topic of market timing. I’m not talking about attempts to profit on arbitrage-type actions. I spent a lot of time last year thinking about what our future state of the economy might look like after 3 consecutive years of double-digit stock returns. Run-away inflation, chip shortages, cargo issues, Ukraine war (only a possibility at the time which came to fruition), etc. Some of our elected officials wanted to inject trillions more into the economy. I shudder to think where we would be had they been successful. I just couldn’t find any positives to support a buy-hold strategy.
As such, I sold my S&P 500 ETF and went to cash in November, 2021. I had deduced we were in for a major correction and potentially a recession. It turned out to be a prescient move based on, what I believe, was due diligence and not emotions. If I buy back the ETF shares now, I will have far more shares and realize a six-figure return when the market recovers. Obviously, the question is: When do I make this decision? Personally, I believe we have more pain ahead and will postpone the repurchase. However, I will not hesitate to pull the trigger, fully realizing there is no way to know when the bottom will hit.
So, was it luck or a well thought out plan? Is market timing all bad?

What you did worked for you and that is what is important. Timing is good if you get it right but nobody gets it right all or most of the time.