Quote:
Originally Posted by ton80
daniel200;2110181
There are many items that require further definition to try to fit these "facts" into a rigorous analysis.: I have taken a quick look at what is published. Most are non scientific. None are rigorous analyses. Here are some comments:
1. "Today it takes about 2.8 acres to produce 1 gigawatt hour of electricity."
The correct term is 1 gigawatt hour per year since it is a power variable not energy.
2. There is no definition of how many solar hours are included? 8760 per year the sun always shines or 50% or ??? Definition required
3. The 2.8 acres is the area of the solar panels themselves. You need more like 4 acres to get the plant footprint. Note: there will be additional plot required for the batteries required to survive the nights and poor solar times.
4. If you try to put solar panels on every roof area you will decrease the power potential since areas facing N do not produce as well as those facing S. It will take more area and more solar panels.
5. "The efficiency of solar panels has been steadily increasing " That is true for new solar panels. However, once the panels are installed, they start to lose efficiency. Hopefully you break even
6. I am out of energy to try to delve into this further. I used to do this for a living, but now I am RETIRED! Good night!
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The math was correct. The USA will require 4 million GWh in 2022. The 2.8 acres per GWh is an accepted average power output per acre per year based on southern US conditions. Weather/night/downtime etc are already included in this number.
4,000,000 GWh * 2.8 acres/GWh = 11.2 million acres
or 17,500 square miles to provide all US electricity requirements
I accept that this is a back of the napkin calculation. But the point is, to get to 25% solar in the US is not an impossible climb.
Iowa produced 55% of all its generated electric power from wind power in 2021! Texas produces 3 times as much power as Iowa but that translates into only 20% of Texas electric needs. These are real numbers … that include all of the things you are worried about (no wind, down time ..etc)
Solar does not need to produce 100% of our needs. Just augment the other options (hydro, thermal, nuclear, wind)