Talk of The Villages Florida - View Single Post - Recession or just pandemic recovery?
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Old 07-28-2022, 01:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Toymeister View Post
The definition of recession, two quarters of negative growth, was established in 1974 by the bureau of labor statistics. That definition has stood 48 years until a week ago when, for political spin, it suddenly was not the definition (sarcasm off).
That is merely a simplification of what was actually said:

In 1974 the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Julius Shiskin suggested that a rough translation of the bureau's qualitative definition of a recession into a quantitative one that almost anyone can use might run like this:

In terms of duration—declines in real G.N.P. for 2 consecutive quarters; a decline in industrial production over a six‐month period.

In terms of depth—A 1.5 per cent decline in real G.N.P.; a 15 per cent decline non-agricultural employment; a two‐point rise in unemployment to a level of at least 6 percent.

In terms of diffusion—A decline in non-agricultural employment in more than 75 per cent of industries, as measured over six‐month spans, for 6 months or longer.