Quote:
Originally Posted by Stu from NYC
Ask 10 experts their opinion and you will get 11 opinions.
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The market is torn between slowly declining product inflation and continuing to incline service inflation. Product declining inflation is due to over deliveries of pandemic related goods to retailers. Service inflation is stickier due to rent equivalent / rent increases as a result of house price increases and slum lords not getting rent payments for about a year, yet utilities and taxes still payable, so they aren't going to let tenants get away with that again. . along with labor shortages pushing up wages.
From that tug of war, the risk is for continued increase in interest rates uncertainty from the FED. Only the very optimistic think that the FED is completely done. Remember that as interest rates rise government debt interest payments starts to crowd out investment and govt operating needs.
Secondarily, the geo political environment is very uncertain, with China practicing war games with Russia, Putin waiting to squeeze europe by shutting off gas during the winter, if he remains alive that long, and China wanting to subjugate Taiwan by one thousand cuts, which could cause the semi conductor goods delivery to collapse
I am still long XLU, utilities, long bonds with occasional hedging using TLT puts, long some hospital reits in the retirement account, as well as short some ****cos in the taxable account, Short MTCH, RUN, and AN.
most all positions are up except my long term TSLA puts, waiting on the outcome of the delaware chancery court, and the NTSA investigations to all the deaths. SpaceX lost its starlink govt funding, so doubtful that continues. my shorts are slightly underwater in this rally.
So no, not all information is currently priced into the market, from the uncertainties listed above. That's a theory which can't be proven true or false, so it remains along with efficient market hypothesis which depends upon that theory in the preeminent U of Chicago dogma.
but YMMV
everyone should have bought bbby in late june at below $5. . . .
better than a lottery ticket in an IRA
finance troglodyte