[CoachKandSportsguy]

Here's S&P's S&P 500 forward GAAP earnings estimate from the S&P website:

Q2 2022: $42.53
Q3 2022: $49.23
Q4 2022: $51.25
Q1 2023: $50.87
Total: $193.88, round to $194
Current level: 4200

1) P/E 15x put the S&P 500 @ 2900
2) Assuming that the earnings are always beat,
by 5% on average due to share repurchases,
($194 x 1.05) =$204 x P/E 15 = @3100
2) Assuming that the earnings are always beat,
by 10% at the extreme due to under forecasting for an intentional beat
($194 x 1.10) =$213 x P/E 15 = @3200

Will the market go straight down to that level? No, it goes down in staggered drops and rallies, like stairs. If you assume that all information is in the market, then why is the P/E so high as compared to average growth, when inflation is elevated, there are shortages in mfg and labor?

Here is a comparison of the current market and the decline in the GFC in the 2000's. note the similarity in the stair steps down.

Don't be Irving Fisher, "Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." any guess when he said that? Just be patient, prices will return to normal levels if not lower