Quote:
Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy
Just remember, this is your behavioral finance:
Narrative Always Follows Price in the Markets
LOL! on the DCF though  and yeah, I have built them for M&A purchase pricing, have seen top consultants build them, and none have actually worked on equities on a consistent basis, because they are not bonds. Its a financial theory of bond pricing taken into the equity space. Bond future cash payments are known, face value return, not so much, but one binary variable probability basis. Equities, not so much, bond cash flows don't have mgmt changes, product obsolescence, basically human corporate management survival and competitiveness, and greed.
but if it works for you  . . . technical analysis is usable short term, fundamentals longer term and both still subject to the uncertainties of the future. I have 20 plus years of daily market and fundamental data, and so far only 1 fairly repeatable pattern, which is based on options expiration timing. Only happens once or twice a month, but i have made money on the daily trade many times.
And everyday I realize its not worth working any more, but coachk won't let me quit, because if I quit, she quits. . and that's at least 2 years away.. . .
future former finance manager |
"but if it works for you". It has! It's why I was able to retire at 47 and move to TV and play softball and golf all day.
I don't want to debate the usefulness of DCF models, as it's only part of a starting point when and if I look at individual companies. 90% of my equity portfolio is in ETF's and has been for probably the last 10 years.
So, what does "20 plus years of daily market" analysis tell you? Are we in a new bull market or just a bear market rally?