Talk of The Villages Florida - View Single Post - Stock Market S&P 500 Fair value calculation
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Old 08-21-2022, 03:58 PM
CoachKandSportsguy CoachKandSportsguy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by melpetezrinski View Post
"but if it works for you". It has! It's why I was able to retire at 47 and move to TV and play softball and golf all day.

I don't want to debate the usefulness of DCF models, as it's only part of a starting point when and if I look at individual companies. 90% of my equity portfolio is in ETF's and has been for probably the last 10 years.

So, what does "20 plus years of daily market" analysis tell you? Are we in a new bull market or just a bear market rally?
it doesn't tell me anything about the current market "regime", cause I only look for trading setups, where I can make a very short term trade to add alpha to the portfolio, or pick the turn on the 39 days average market wave cycle.

since I have been in 401K cash/bonds for about 1 year, and IRA similar but more cash less bonds, and more equities, I am still waiting for a fairer value before going long on a 60-80% level. . .

which is why I occasionally post about fair value for the SP500, for those like @manabouttown to hold onto his cash for a bit while we continue to stair step down, like the chart indicates. . . or for anyone who wants to reduce market risk within their portfolios. . .

future former finance guy