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Originally Posted by melpetezrinski
Interest rates were NOT "totally predictable at least 6 months ago". Many thought inflation would peak and even start to decline giving the Fed an easy out of their aggressive rate hiking policy. Even if inflation stayed constant, many smart Wall Street people thought the Fed would at least communicate the possibility of pausing in the near future and actually, when they might even LOWER rates. Basically, many thought the Fed would revert back to their extremely accommodative rate policy that is IMO, 70% of the reason we are on the brink of another financial crisis. Surprisingly, the Fed has stayed the course and continues to not only raise rates in significant chunks but more importantly and speaks to your "predictions of future events", they continue to communicate that fighting inflation is still their #1 goal and that they need to see consecutive points of data that suggest inflation has been controlled and that might take 3-6 months. Remember the Fed proclaiming inflation is "transitory"? Well, they were dead wrong. Inflation is sticky and infectious. Companies are raising prices not only because THEIR input prices are also rising but BECAUSE THEY CAN.
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Agree with most of what you said but do think that 6 months ago or even longer it was obvious that interest rates would be going up with bond prices going down.
The Fed is mandated to control inflation and even though they took longer than they should have they are now trying to get it under control.
Now if only the Feds would do the same