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Originally Posted by ThirdOfFive
Actually that would be four decades: the 1980s, the 1990s, the 2000s, and the 2010s. which would mean, if the research quoted was accurate, that hurricanes in 1980 were 32% less severe than hurricanes in 2020.
I did quite a bit of clicking around this morning to see if I could find evidence to support or refute the theory that there was that much variation in hurricane severity over the years, but the data I could find was all over the map. Interestingly enough the "severity" of hurricanes are measured in one of two ways; wind speed or barometric pressure, and depending on the method the list of "severe" storms can be quite different. Some people attempt to categorize hurricanes according to damage and/or deaths, but that is sophistic. For instance, the deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record was the "Great Hurricane" (Huracán San Calixto) killed over 22,000 people (some estimates of close to 30,000) but that was back in 1780! No data about wind speed of that storm is available, only estimates, though it is believed to have been a category 5. It should be noted as well that Huracán San Calixto struck the Antilles (Hispaniola, St. Kitts, Nevis, several other islands) which were agrarian cultures, growing mainly sugar cane, and as I assume slaves were counted as property, not people, the toll could have been far higher than reported.
Interestingly enough, 1780 is still the deadliest hurricane year on record, though I'll bet the farm that many people believe it was actually 2005 and Katrina.
Another fly in this particular ointment is that the old data records probably only the hurricanes that made landfall, and many don't, so it is quite possible that in years like 1780 there were quite a few more storms than were reported. Today we track every tropical depression using a variety of methods and get hour-by-hour updates, but 200 years ago those methods didn't exist.
Bottom line: we can choose whatever we want to believe and can find statistics to support it. But, as Mark Twain once observed, there are three kinds of untruths, "lies, damned lies, and statistics".
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You are correct about the 4 decades. My bad, I will try harder in the future. Impressive that your post was so well-researched. As to the conclusion that basically anybody can find support for anything that they believe. Yes, I guess that is true. It is said that as people age their belief systems harden like their arteries. So, here in the Villages, it is hard to find open-minded discussions. I remember a few philosophy club meetings that I attended. It was a waste because one very closed-minded belligerent man would dominate the group discussions. I imagine that the Village weather and climate club has some rowdy exchanges. I can only imagine because I have never attended that club.
I guess each person has to make up their mind about how they feel about climate change, recent Global Warming, and whether hurricanes are increasing in intensity. For any family living in the coastal areas of Florida, it becomes a practical and NOT academic decision - they must decide IF they rebuild their destroyed homes and can they afford to rebuild to the newer housing standards (stilt basements). And Florida may eventually decide to set a no-building limit some certain distance from the water line - depending on if there are more KILLER hurricanes like IAN for the next 10 years.
So, here in north central Florida, the Villagers can be more academic about warming and intensifying hurricanes. The hurricane threat is not quite as real as someone living on the coast. I will just conclude by saying that we will likely know who is correct about Global Warming and hurricanes within the next 10 years. So. just buckle up and be aware!