Quote:
Originally Posted by tuccillo
Wow, quite a rant ;-) You really need to go reread my post. A good portion of it was addressing the silliness of using "greenhouse" and "blanket" as analogies for the impact of CO2 on the atmosphere. They are not good analogies. I personally don't buy into the dumbing down of scientific explanations, which "greenhouse" and "blanket" are. Be that as it may, it is almost universally accepted, by those that understand the science, that there has been some anthropogenic warming. This is based on both data (traditional and proxy) and radiative transfer theory. There are numerous peer reviewed journal articles that address this. There is some debate on the magnitude. There is also some debate on the magnitude of future warming (next 100 years or so) from climate models and which CO2 scenario is appropriate for the future. I suspect, but certainly don't know, that the atmosphere is less sensitive to CO2 than the climate models are showing. Modeling of non-linear systems is complicated. Analyzing results from these non-linear models is complicated. Sufficient computing power to reduce model resolutions (1km in the horizontal would be helpful) to the point where the closure schemes for parameterizing sub-grid scale processes ceases to become a significant point of uncertainty, and bias, is probably a decade away. Trends are important but so is a lack of bias for analyzing possible tipping points. Will we continue to warm? Yes, from both anthropogenic sources and the fact that we are in an interglacial period that started about 12,000 years ago. What can we do about it? Probably not much. We will continue to use fossil fuels, in great amounts, for the foreseeable future. There is just no getting around that. If the most pessimistic modeling projections for anthropogenic warming come to fruition, we will probably see substantial political unrest over the next 100 years or so (the time frame that modeling is looking at) as regional climates are impacted.
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That WAS a very IMPRESSIVE post. Thank you, keep up the good, intelligent work. It is obvious, to me, that you know this subject well and are able to produce impressive vocabulary and logic on the subject.
.........I believe that we actually AGREE more than we DISAGREE.
I will concede that you are the expert in THIS field and I am but a LAYMAN