Quote:
Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy
The stock market is going lower in the beginning of CY23, interest rates may or may not go higher from here. as inflation has peaked, or is near its peak, but the federal reserve has not finished yet.
Taxes should not be as much of a consideration to sell stock -> taxes are a by product of success, the more success, the more taxes you will pay, and that sure beats taking a tax loss. . .. .Loss of gains is now on what you should be focused, given retirement and only the lottery will significantly change your income to invest more. Indexes or highly diversified portfolios are a bit different. . I sold a large portion of my stocks over two years ago, very near the peak as the divergences were showing cracks, and I have been 20% -25% equities and 60% bonds and 20+ percent cash ever since.
What is going to happen is that inflation is going to drop very quickly, as the recession and calculation base effects occur. Bond will also be bought very quickly as well, so i would encourage some shift, but that is just me, because I m patiently waiting for 3,000 3,200 on the SP500 to go back in, and trying to find a bottom to trade the long bond, and find zombie companies to continue to short on the way down. You can search on some of my posts
With treasuries, you don't have to wait for the maturity to sell, you can sell them anytime as the price rises and you get capital gains versus interest, and you can move that money back to equities if you like. .
good luck. . .
trader guy
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"The stock market is going lower in the beginning of CY23" Agree and I'll stick my neck out and say 15%.
"3,000 3,200 on the SP500" Ouch! 20-25% more?
"20% -25% equities and 60% bonds and 20+ percent cash ever since". Are those corporate bonds or short term treasuries? I am actually fairly close to your allocation but your bond and cash buckets are just 1,3 and 6 month tbills for me.