Quote:
Originally Posted by Stu from NYC
As the old saying goes ask 10 economists for prediction and you will get 11 different answers.
If anyone can consistently time the market they will be filthy rich and no need to do anything but lay on a beach drinking margaritas.
When the wizard of Omaha cannot time the market why would you think anyone else could?
Common wisdom is everyone expects a recession, will there be one who knows if there is one mild or strong also who knows.
One of the best long term bond funds out there is Fidelity Contrafund that goes the other way and is normally very successful.
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I used to sometimes copy Will Danoff’s homework, when I first started trading online. I looked at his 10 top holdings from time to time, and then looked further into any of them that caught my eye. (Yes. I know. I will now be chastised by some random poster for not consulting a
professional.)
Btw, some of you, especially if interested in behavioral economics, might want to read — or reread —
Freakonomics. I recently listened to the original, on Audible, and am now into the next one and some of the podcasts. I think the first one was written somewhere around 2005. Looking at the original
Freakonomics from the future of 2022 can be a little eerie, but thought provoking.
Boomer