Quote:
Originally Posted by tuccillo
Best estimates have anthropogenic warming at about 1C. While we have been in an interglacial period for about 12,000 years and will continue to warm and experience the resultant increases in sea levels, there is concern that anthropogenic increases will also continue. The concern is essentially for the next 100 years. A further anthropogenic increase of 2-3 C would have geopolitical consequences. You can not find anyone who actually understands the science to dispute that there has been anthropogenic warming. What is debated is how much has occurred and how much more additional anthropogenic warming will occur. The current models tend to run warm in the equatorial mid-troposphere when retrospective run are examined. In my opinion, as someone who actually developed atmospheric models for the Government, the models are not really ready as a tool for developing public policy. Unfortunately, it is the 8.5 scenario that the media and politicians have focused on.
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That's interesting about the next 100 years. I believe that we are already seeing geo-consequences. In the US, we have up to 1,000 per day Climate Refugees crossing our southern border. And masses of Climate Refugees are moving northward from recently uninhabitable regions of Africa due to heat and crop failures. It seems like Mr.Climate is "COOKING UP"something similar to what has been often predicted in Apocolypse-type movies. Good thing that we are old, but pity the grandchildren.