Talk of The Villages Florida - View Single Post - He scares me too
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Old 08-10-2009, 03:47 AM
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Originally Posted by gnu View Post
Do you really believe that OB and Company had ANYTHING to do with the stock markets rise? I have yet to read anything in the financial news that points to OB contributing to the turnaround. How handy it always is to give the sitting President ( of either party) credit when things go right and blame when things go wrong. You are here when you think that he has done a good job, lets see if you criticize him if he goes bust.
Absolutely. We are where we are today because of the actions of this administration to stabalize the banking system in March. And they did so by rejecting both the far right's call to let the banks fail and the far left's call to nationalize the banks and have the government take them over entirely. The course taken already has led to the banks returning to profitablity and the beginning of repayment of the bailout money.

But hey, I don't care who gets the credit; I am just happy to have my portfolio back to within 10% of where it was last fall. In fact, I plan to take some money off the table at this point and wait for the inevitable correction because the market is seriously overbought at this point. The S&P 500 may end up at between 1050-1100 by year-end as Abbey Joseph Cohen predicts, but I'm more than satisfied with the run-up from 667 to 1010 since March. If I miss some small gains by mis-timing the market, so be it.

The upcoming recovery could be V shaped or W shaped. The problem of course being that the upward recovery leg of a V and the initial accent in a W recovery look identical. In order for this to be a V recovery, we now need the private sector to ramp up production rather than concentrating on reducing top line costs and expenditures.

But unlike the poster to whom I initially responded, I am more worried about the Republicans than the Democrats. If the right succeeds in turning off the money spigot too quickly, it could put the breaks on this recovery and send us into a deeper double-dip recession. Although the D word is no longer being uttered, we could still suffer a lost decade as Japan did in the 90s if the economy is handled incorrectly. There is a lot of talk about hyper-inflation on this board, but the real problem is avoiding deflation. Once that is accomplished, then we can address long-term inflation concerns.