Very interesting read. It could be summarized by saying this place represents a game of musical chairs, and growth is the music, so growth needs to be fully embraced because when it stops the game will end, and the end won’t be pretty. Although I don’t necessarily disagree with the premise, I find it extremely disturbing that this is the situation that exists.
Anyone with extensive education and experience in business, investments, or civil leadership fully understands that diversification of risk is absolutely essential for both long term success as well as stability and sustainability. What we have here is an economy that is practically the opposite, it is based on the growth of one core industry (a retirement community) and the services demanded by it’s clientele. This lack of risk diversification is akin to one having their entire life’s savings invested in a single asset, which no prudent investment professional would ever recommend.
This is not by any means an anti-developer statement, I would never find fault in a private business looking to maximize profits while the market is ripe for their product, fully knowing at some point the game very well could end. This is also not an attempt to bash the Villages, I love this place and have invested a sizable chunk of our retirement savings in our home with eyes wide open. Where else in the world can I wake up every morning with beautiful weather and spend my day enjoying an active lifestyle with more amenities than the day is long, all accessible by a golf cart? If there is blame for the lack of diversification in the local economy it would logically fall on the civic leaders for allowing the current situation to manifest itself. It’s easy to see how this happened, the economic benefits of growth are real and substantial (in the short term) and putting the brakes on growth would make those responsible very unpopular, even if they were doing it for the right long term reasons. There are numerous examples of other areas where rapid growth of a non-diversified economic base have not turned out well in the long term. See the rust belt, former proud mill towns that are now in economic ruin, and the once proud city of Hartford, CT, which was once dubbed the insurance city.
Eventually growth has to end as physical space limitations and market saturation are inevitable. There are many fully mature areas in our country that are doing just fine without growth because they got to where they are by growing slowly and responsibly over a long time, resulting in thriving well diversified economies. Unfortunately, this area is not following that path, and cracks are already starting to show. Look no further than the services demanded by all us retired senior citizens. The health care in this area is woefully substandard and the area can’t attract young professionals, restaurants and retail establishments can’t find help, service providers like HVAC and irrigation specialist aren’t accepting new customers, etc……. Despite this, the short term elixir of growth says let’s keep building up this non diversified economic base as fast as houses will sell? This short term mindset is very dangerous and is not being set up to end well. At most Villagers ages, the eventual crash and burn will probably not happen during our lifetime so it’s easy to look the other way, that’s what I do as at my age I’m not looking to change the world, just enjoy the remaining years as much as possible because you never know when your number will be called. But don’t kid yourself, this non diversified economy is not sustainable in the long run. Here is hoping our kids will still be able to sell our homes at a good price when we are gone?
Enough of this, I need to go swimming, golfing, biking, play some pickleball, and dance with my wife, time is a wasting!
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