[mntlblok]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

A lot of people (probably most) get this wrong. Is the planet warming? Yes, because we are in an interglacial period and there has been anthropogenic warming, and we will continue to warm. Nobody, who actually understand the science, debates this. How much anthropogenic warming has there been? Best estimates are about 1C for the global average surface temperature anomaly. You can reference the IPCC AR6 report and subscribe to the AMS JoC. Probably a bit less for the lower tropospheric global temperature anomaly from Roy Spencer and John Christy's satellite-based dataset starting in 1979. How much additional anthropogenic warming will there be? Hard to say and this is an area of continued research. I'll repeat that: nobody really knows. The dire predictions appear to be based on the RCP 8.5 modeling scenario. I suspect that is a bit pessimistic (too high). Again, nobody knows. One of the lower RCP scenarios might be more appropriate. Hard to say, nobody knows. The thing that most people get wrong is the assumption that the Milankovitch cycles are the time scales of concern. Nothing could be further from the truth. The Milankovitch cycles have time scale of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. The current concern is for the next 100 years. I'll repeat that: the concern is for the next 100 years. The real issue is how sensitive is the climate to modest amounts of CO2 induced warming. It be clear, CO2 induced warming, by itself, is not a concern. The real concern is the nonlinear response to the CO2 induced warming. If the climate is relatively insensitive to CO2 induced warming then there is really no dire concern. If the climate has a strong positive feedback to the CO2 induced warming then there is concern. This is an area of research as we really don't know. People can claim they know the answer, particularly people who post on this forum with out any domain knowledge, but in reality we don't know.

The following websites are worth visiting, if you actually care about reality.

The first one is from Sabine Hossenfelder. If you aren't going to watch till the end then don't even bother firing it up.

The second link is from Roy Spencer. He works with observational data his perspective is worth listening too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqu5DjzOBF8

GW 101 - Roy Spencer, PhD.

Full disclosure: Undergraduate and graduate degrees in meteorology and retired research meteorologist at NASA and the National Weather Service.

Thanks. Climate change feedback - Wikipedia Now know a lot more than I did before.