Quote:
Originally Posted by Vermilion Villager
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Sure it's concerning if it were "true." The article is based on data from a National Parks Service water quality buoy in Manatee Bay. It is located just east of US 1 as you head south to the Keys. There are several science problems with this article and others that have been published - the least of which is that NOAA has
not validated the data.
I was a NOAA scientist for over a quarter century and when I first saw this "record" reported by Tony Mainolfi of WESH 2, I knew it was very likely erroneous. Yup, I screamed at the TV! Think about it, for those with pools or go to the pools in the Villages - is the water temperature over 100? Over 95? (Maybe more like 90 for a max.) Thermometers in our cars will register 110 F plus in the summer - but is that valid? "It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.”
After looking at a plot of the data - my first thought is that the buoy ran aground or was up-ended and was measuring un-aspirated air temperatures. Marine water temperatures just do not vary 10 F through the day like inland air temperatures do. Also, the "annual record" maximum air temperature from Key West is 97 F (from 1956) - we all know it's cooler by the water.
NDBC - 5-day plot - Water Temperature at MNBF1
Current data looks to me like the buoy is back home in the water and reporting "more accurate" data.
Anyway - yes water temperatures are "abnormally" warm:
But wind shear related to the El Nino / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is generally more important tropical cyclone intensity.
Speaking of records: My Earth Science textbook from 50 years ago listed the world's record temperature as 136°F on 13 Sept 1922, in Aziziya, Libya. 90 years later, that record was classified as "invalid" by the World Meteorological Society. Just Saying ......