
08-22-2023, 09:25 PM
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Senior Member
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Join Date: Dec 2021
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy
If a super computer could predict the moves, do you really think that you or I would know about it? Do you really think Rennaisance Capital gave away their technological advantage as soon as it was proven? Perspective, there are people and systems, now called robots, which make decisions which humans can't because the robots can manage much more information that the human mind can absorb and then use to decide. . DBD
Ah, the number 1 determinate of equity pricing is revenue growth. . that's your first clue.
Second clue is industry and products. .
Industrial, manufacturing, commercia, retail, consumer: new products, new services, one time
purchase product or repeat buyers over what time span, and how often, and product life
cycle.
Third clue is near monopoly, oligopoly or very regional marketplaces and diverse competition.
Shows up in margin sensitivity, supply chain effectiveness and purchase price sensitivity,
and revenue growth. . .
Fourth clue is interest rate / inflation / fx rates sensitivity,
Fifth clue is debt to equity and Return on Assets ratios. .
Sixth is event risk: how sensitive is the company to customer events, employee events, new product events, political events, geopolitical events, etc. . which is inversely proportional to size
That's a good start to the analysis, and its not easy, but if you get it right, you can make quite nice returns. . DBD
finance guy
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So why do monkeys throwing darts against a board beat active money manger's'' over 80% of the time.
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