Quote:
Originally Posted by ThirdOfFive
I’m no businessperson (thank goodness my wife is) but a whole lot of these prognostications smack not of fact and truth but instead, wishful thinking.
|
By definition, prognostications are never facts nor truths, because they are about the future, and the future hasn't happened yet.
Moreover, the future is always uncertain, sometimes more uncertain than at other times. Anyone who states a human behavioral future event with black and white certainty, probably, but not certainly, wants to sell you something.
But discussions about the future, when framed as a probability or risk, has much more validity, but still not a certainty. . and a 50/50 probability, is basically an unknown probability, because both outcomes are even, ergo, unknown or random or binary, either it does or doesn't, which has no value.
so you are correct with the obvious. .