[bobeaston]

The days of a true meteorologist looking out the window and making a forecast are long gone, ...as is the personal bias of your favorite weather forecast personality. Yes, some offer their own spin, but they're working from a forecast handed to them by a service.

Weather forecasts have been computer generated for decades. There are only a few weather services offering subscriptions to their service. Each has slightly differing models of how they predict. When you see a forecast on a TV station, or a website, it is a derivative of one of those services, and they will vary depending on which service that broadcaster subscribes to.

Each model has quite a range of possibilities built into them, such as typical summer weather almost anywhere includes a chance of pop-up thunderstorms. Here, we're complaining about the accuracy of the timing, which is quite "soft" for most forecast services.

There are models which can be very precise, down to grids with squares about 100 yards on a side, but those are very expensive to maintain and not part of the usual subscription offers.

So, we make do with general forecasts ... and the meteorological variables of living on a rather narrow peninsula that has water bodies on each side with their own variables.