Quote:
Originally Posted by retiredguy123
Every morning, I check the Weather Channel app to see if it is going to rain. Today, it said that there was a 71 percent chance for rain at 5 pm. But, now, at 3 pm, the chance for rain at 5 pm is only 40 percent. I understand that a forecast can change, but this pattern occurs almost every day. The chance for rain at 5 pm is very high in the early morning, but then it decreases as the time gets closer to 5 pm. It almost never increases. It happens so often that I believe that the forecasters are intentionally publishing a higher chance for rain in the morning than the data actually suggests. Has anyone else noticed this trend and is there a logical explanation?
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Because Florida sits between the Gulf and Atlantic, the weather is difficult to predict. The weather software models are decent, but they aren't accurate enough to predict to the hour with high reliability. I look at the hourly forecasts to get a general idea of the weather that is currently predicted, then I watch the Doppler Radar an hour or two before an event to see what has actually formed. Even the Doppler forecasts for an hour or two into the future lack accuracy. Also, forecasts are for a general area like "The Villages". They aren't for the specific location in which you live.